Climate
Human-made greenhouse gas emissions are warming the planet, leading to climate change and increased extreme weather events. NSW is committed to reaching net zero emissions by 2050.
The topics in this theme describe how climate change is affecting the State’s people and environment, the resulting impacts of increased extreme climate and weather and how the NSW Government is delivering on meeting net zero targets.
Climate change is an urgent global issue. The impacts on ecosystems and economies are already felt and could get worse as climate continues to change.
Climate change is increasing the frequency, intensity, or duration of certain types of extreme weather that increases the risk of flooding, heatwaves and bushfires.
In line with Australian aspirations, NSW has set emissions reduction targets. Based on latest projections, NSW is not on track to achieve its emissions reduction target by 2030 and 2035.
Climate change
Climate change is an urgent global issue.
Certain human activities, such as burning fossil fuels, emit greenhouse gases. The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere leads to increasing surface temperatures overland, rising sea levels and warmer sea surface temperatures.
Impacts are projected to get worse as a result of higher continuing greenhouse gas emissions.
Aboriginal peoples gain insight into climate shifts and changes by monitoring seasonality over long time scales, which supports adaptation and food sustainability.
See the topic for more information about sources of emissions.
Key findings from the 2024 report
- NSW average surface temperatures over land have risen 1.4°C since national records began in 1910.
- Several climate drivers, El Niño and La Niña, contribute to the State's seasonal rainfall, which makes it difficult to establish clear trends.
- In NSW, sea level rose by 12 centimetres between 1991 and 2023 and is projected to rise by up to one metre by the end of the 21st century.
- Sea surface temperatures in the Sydney area have increased by about 0.14–0.2°C per decade since the 1950s.
Extreme climate and weather
Extreme climate and weather, such as extreme rainfall (such as ‘hot days’ or severe fire weather) can damage our environments, infrastructure, health and economy.
Extreme weather events cause damage to cultural sites and landscapes.
Some climate and weather events may increase in frequency, intensity or duration due to human-induced climate change.
Key findings from the 2024 report
- The number of ‘hot days’ (where the maximum temperature is equal to or higher than 35°C) is projected to increase by 2080–99, particularly in northern regions of NSW.
- The number of severe fire weather days (where there is a combination of wind, high temperatures, low humidity and no recent rainfall, resulting in Forest Fire Danger Index > 50) is also projected to increase by 2080–99.
- Extreme rainfall (99th percentile of precipitation in millimetres per day) is projected to increase or decrease depending on the season and geographical area. Further research is needed to understand the uncertainties in the projections.
- Significant uncertainty remains around rainfall projections, meaning it is difficult to project when drought conditions will occur.
Net Zero Plan Stage 1: 2020–30
Under the Paris Climate Agreement, Australia is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 43% (compared to 2005 levels) by 2030 and achieve net zero emissions by 2050.
Based on modelling performed in 2023, Australia is projected to reduce emissions by 42% on 2005 levels by 2030, which is slightly less than the legislated target of 43%.
The NSW Net Zero Plan, released in 2020, is the foundation of NSW Government’s action for climate change and its goal to reach net zero emissions.
The NSW Climate Change (Net Zero Futures) Act 2023 sets guiding principles for the State's climate action, sets emissions reduction targets and an adaptation objective for NSW to be more resilient to a changing climate and establishes the Net Zero Commission to monitor, review, report and advise on progress towards emissions reduction targets.
The State's legislated targets are 50% emissions reductions on 2005 levels by 2030, 70% reduction on 2005 levels by 2035, and net zero by 2050.
NSW is not guaranteed to reach the interim reduction by 2030 relative to 2005 levels.
Further action beyond current policies will be needed to address ongoing greenhouse gas emissions, particularly by transport, agriculture and heavy industry.
See the topic for more information about emissions sources.
Key findings from the 2024 report
- The State's emissions reduction targets may not be achieved without significant additional effort. Based on modelling performed in 2023, existing policy program settings are projected to reduce emissions by 44–50% by 2030. This suggests that more is required to achieve the 50% reduction target.
- Transport is set to become the biggest greenhouse gas contributor by 2030, overtaking stationary energy (electricity generation) as NSW continues to decarbonise the electricity sector.
- Of the 16 net zero initiatives, three are ‘complete’ (Riverina battery project, Low Emissions Building Materials Program, and Decarbonising Infrastructure Delivery Policy) and 13 are ‘being delivered’ (NSW Electricity Infrastructure Roadmap, NSW Electric Vehicle Strategy, Net Zero Industry and Innovation Program and various others).